When does grading a Japanese card pay? PSA 10 vs raw sales
The short answer
On Yahoo! Auctions a PSA 10 Japanese Pokémon card sells for a median 3.5 times a raw copy of the same card, across 344 cards with enough sales of both. A PSA 9 sells for only 1.3 times raw, which rarely covers PSA Japan's ¥9,980 fee, so grading is a bet on getting a 10. For cards worth ¥10,000 or more raw, a one-in-two chance of a 10 is enough for 31 of the 36 we can test; under ¥3,000, a 10 barely covers the fee.
This is for a collector in Japan with a clean modern card, deciding whether to send it to PSA. Our grading guide compared shop asking prices and advised grading only when you're confident of a 10 and the PSA 10 asks ¥10,000 more than raw. With sale prices we can be more precise about how sure you need to be.
What we compared
For every Japanese card with trusted raw sales on Yahoo! Auctions, we took the median of ended auctions over 90 days for the raw card and for PSA-graded copies of the same number and version. We counted a grade only where it had at least three Yahoo! sales and our version match is trusted. Of the 472 Pokémon cards with any PSA 10 sales, 344 qualify; 73 of those also have enough PSA 9 sales. These are the most traded cards, not a random sample.
What a 10 is worth, by price
| Raw card, 90-day median | Cards | PSA 10 ÷ raw (median) | PSA 10 beats raw + PSA fee | Median gain after the fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥3,000 | 55 | 5.2× | 53% | ¥270 |
| ¥3,000 to ¥9,999 | 164 | 3.7× | 78% | ¥4,115 |
| ¥10,000 to ¥49,999 | 113 | 2.9× | 100% | ¥28,570 |
| ¥50,000 or more | 12 | 2.1× | 100% | ¥63,020 |
| All Pokémon | 344 | 3.5× | 82% | ¥6,645 |
CardMochi data: Yahoo! Auctions sold medians, 90 days to 5 Oct 2026. Gain = PSA 10 median − raw median − PSA Japan's fee for the tier that covers the PSA 10's value (¥9,980 up to ¥150,000). Before postage, insurance and Yahoo!'s 10% seller fee.
The multiple is highest on cheap cards, but the yen are not. A ¥2,000 card that becomes a ¥10,000 slab loses about ¥2,000 once the fee is paid. Above ¥10,000 raw, every Pokémon PSA 10 in our data clears its fee.
One Piece follows the same pattern at a lower multiple. A PSA 10 sells for a median 2.5 times raw across 66 cards and beats raw plus the fee for 82% of them, but not for every card above ¥10,000: 4 of 26 fall short.
How sure do you need to be of a 10?
A PSA 9 cleared raw plus the fee for only 6 of the 73 Pokémon cards with PSA 9 sales. So the question is how often you'd get a 10, assuming a card that misses comes back a 9.
Take the Triplet Beat Magikarp AR (コイキング). Raw it sells for ¥15,649; graded, ¥40,500 as a 10 and ¥23,000 as a 9. A 10 earns about ¥14,900 after the fee, while a 9 loses about ¥2,600. If 15 of every 100 copies came back 10s, their gains would cover the losses on the other 85, so 15% is its break-even. Across the 36 cards worth ¥10,000 or more raw, the median break-even is 14%. For cheaper cards it is 73%: you'd need to be nearly sure.
How often do Japanese cards get a 10?
For the heavily graded modern cards we checked, often. PSA's population counts, as published by PokeInvest, show a median 88% of graded copies at PSA 10 across these eight:
| Card | PSA 10 share of graded copies |
|---|---|
| Mega Greninja ex SAR (メガゲッコウガex), Ninja Spinner | 93.9% |
| Magikarp AR, Triplet Beat | 91.1% |
| Sylveon ex SAR (ニンフィアex), Terastal Fest ex | 89.3% |
| Mega Gengar ex SAR (メガゲンガーex), MEGA Dream ex | 88.9% |
| Pikachu ex SAR (ピカチュウex), MEGA Dream ex | 87.1% |
| Umbreon ex SAR (ブラッキーex), Terastal Fest ex | 86.9% |
| Pikachu AR (ピカチュウ), 151 | 83.9% |
| Iono SAR (ナンジャモ), Clay Burst | 57.8% |
The Iono is the exception, and we found no sourced reason for it. PokeInvest shows the English 151 Charizard ex (199/165) at about 28%.
These shares overstate the odds for any one copy. Collectors send the cards they think will get a 10, and cards cracked out and resubmitted can be counted twice. Treat them as the ceiling for a clean card.
Five cards, worked through
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 | PSA 9 | Grading's expected value, at its PSA 10 share | At even odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Gengar ex SAR | ¥35,000 | ¥67,600 | ¥41,000 | +¥19,700 (89%) | +¥9,300 |
| Iono SAR | ¥34,250 | ¥83,980 | ¥37,000 | +¥19,900 (58%) | +¥16,300 |
| Magikarp AR | ¥15,649 | ¥40,500 | ¥23,000 | +¥13,300 (91%) | +¥6,100 |
| Pikachu AR | ¥3,500 | ¥16,900 | ¥6,500 | +¥1,700 (84%) | −¥1,800 |
| Jolteon ex SAR | ¥4,900 | ¥14,000 | one sale | −¥880 even with a 10 | — |
In words: the expected value averages what you'd make with a 10 and with a 9, weighted by the chance of each, minus the raw card you give up and the ¥9,980 fee. CardMochi data and PokeInvest shares, 5 Oct 2026.
This Mega Gengar ex is the MEGA Dream ex SAR (240/193). It is a different card from the MBG Mega Gengar ex in our grading guide, which lost money even at a 10. The Pikachu is the marginal case: its ¥1,700 gain is about what Yahoo!'s 10% seller fee would take on the slab, and at 30-day prices it turns negative, at about −¥700.
What the fee doesn't include
PSA Japan's Standard tier, offered from 15 Sep 2026, costs ¥9,980 a card for declared values up to ¥150,000, with an estimated 100 business days to return; dearer tiers cost more. PSA charges return postage and insurance per order on top. If it judges a card's value above its tier, you pay the difference. ARS, a Japanese grader, costs ¥3,850 a card up to ¥30,000 and doesn't mark down for centering, but we have too few ARS sales to compare.
Prices also move while a card is away. For the five cards above, the PSA 10's 30-day median is 7% to 21% below its 90-day median, and raw prices fell too.
What this means for you
A clean card worth ¥10,000 or more raw: grading usually pays if you put your chance of a 10 at one in five or better, assuming a miss comes back a 9. Check that card's own PSA 10 and PSA 9 sales first.
A card under ¥3,000: don't grade it to sell. The fee eats nearly all of the gain, and a 9 loses money.
A card with visible wear: a PSA 9 sells for little more than raw. Sell it raw or keep it.
Any card: price the decision on the 30-day medians, not the 90-day ones. The slab comes back about five months later, and recent prices are the better guide.
Method and limits
- Yahoo! Auctions ended listings only, median of the last 90 days, for the same card number and version. Slab prices that pool other marketplaces are left out. Raw medians mix every condition that sold, so a clean raw card may fetch more.
- PSA 10 and PSA 9 need at least three sales in 90 days and a trusted version match. Only 73 Pokémon and 3 One Piece cards have enough PSA 9 sales.
- Expected values assume a card that misses a 10 gets a 9. A lower grade makes grading worse.
- PSA 10 shares are PSA population counts as published by PokeInvest, read 5 Oct 2026.
- Fees are PSA Japan's and ARS's published prices, read 5 Oct 2026. Postage, insurance and Yahoo!'s seller fee are not included.
Sources
- CardMochi sold data: Yahoo! Auctions raw, PSA 10 and PSA 9 sold medians, 90 and 30 days to 5 Oct 2026, for 344 Pokémon and 66 One Piece cards.
- PSA Japan, services and fees: psacard.co.jp/services; service-level change, 10 Sep 2026: psacard.com; FAQ (declared value and upcharges): psacard.com.
- ARS, prices: ars-grading.com/price; centering policy: ars-grading.com/service/reliability.
- PokeInvest, PSA population counts: Mega Greninja ex 114, Magikarp 80, Sylveon ex 212, Mega Gengar ex 240, Pikachu ex 234, Umbreon ex 217, Pikachu 173, Iono 96; English Charizard ex 199.
- CardMochi, Grading Japanese Pokémon and One Piece cards: /blog/grading-japanese-cards.html.
Researched with AI tools, checked and edited by the CardMochi team. Prices are Yahoo! Auctions sold medians for raw and PSA-graded copies on the dates shown. About CardMochi · How we price