Japan card market this week: still sliding, 17 Oct 2026
The short answer
Japanese card sales slid for another week. Comparing the same cards in both weeks, the median Pokémon card sold 6.7% below its 90-day level on Yahoo! Auctions, against 6.0% a week earlier; for One Piece the gap widened from 10.5% to 12.6%. In Pokémon, the dearer the card, the bigger the fall. The 30th CELEBRATION Card Set came out on 16 Oct, and complete sets of all nine versions resold at 1.6 to 1.9 times their ¥10,800 shop price on the first night.
The scoreboard
| Sales to… | Pokémon | One Piece |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct: median card, last 30 days vs 90 | −5.3% (502 cards) | −12.2% (134 cards) |
| 5 Oct, last week | −5.9% (386 cards) | −10.5% (126 cards) |
| Same cards, both weeks | −6.7% vs −6.0% (357 cards) | −12.6% vs −10.5% (113 cards) |
| Fell more than 5% / rose more than 5%, this week | 257 / 65 | 103 / 7 |
CardMochi data: Yahoo! Auctions ended listings for the same version, cards with at least 3 sales in 30 days and 6 in 90.
Read the third row, not the first. Pokémon's headline figure looks better than last week's only because the sample changed: 145 cards entered, most of them vintage cards, old promos and decks that our sales data started covering this week, and 29 dropped out. The newcomers' median didn't fall at all. Held to the same 357 cards, Pokémon slipped further, and the typical card's 30-day median sale price fell 1.8% between the two readings; for One Piece it fell 2.4%.
Shop asks were steadier than sales. Of 2,068 Pokémon asks we could compare between the shops' readings of 3 and 12 Oct, 1,818 didn't change, 150 fell and 100 rose. In One Piece, of 792 asks read on 4 and 12 Oct, 645 didn't change, 88 fell and 59 rose.
Coming up
| Date | What | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct, 23:59 | JUMP SHOP entry lottery closes: EB-05, OP-17 | results 18–19 Oct |
| 18 Oct, 23:00 | Shimamura Park online lottery closes: 30th CELEBRATION box and Card Set, Storm Emeralda, OP-17 | ⚠️ per aggregators |
| 18 Oct, 23:59 | Rakuten Books lotteries close: 30th CELEBRATION box; EB-05, OP-17 | |
| 18 Oct, 23:59 | Don Quijote, Apita and Piago majica lottery closes: EB-05, up to 6 packs | ⚠️ per aggregators |
| 20 Oct, 23:00 | Premium Bandai lotteries close: 4th Anniversary Set (round 2), OP-17 (round 3) | ⚠️ closing time per aggregators |
| 31 Oct | One Piece EB-05, Heroines Edition vol.2, ¥240 a pack; HEROINES PRECIOUS BOX, official shops only | |
| 21 Nov | One Piece OP-18, The Dominance Of God (神の支配), ¥240 a pack |
From our lottery calendar. ⚠️ means the shop hasn't confirmed it on its own page.
What sold
Five of the biggest falls among cards that sold for ¥10,000 or more over 90 days, with at least five sales in the last 30, from recent sets and old ones:
| Card | 90-day median | Last 30 days | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Rayquaza ex (メガレックウザex) Mega Hyper Rare, Storm Emeralda | ¥70,000 | ¥50,990 (102 sales) | −27.2% |
| Mega Charizard X ex (メガリザードンXex) Mega Hyper Rare, Inferno X | ¥110,000 | ¥81,002 (9 sales) | −26.4% |
| Umbreon & Darkrai GX (ブラッキー&ダークライGX), Tag All Stars | ¥110,000 | ¥72,600 (5 sales) | −34.0% |
| Monkey.D.Luffy SP card (モンキー・D・ルフィ), One Piece | ¥80,000 | ¥58,800 (47 sales) | −26.5% |
| Ms. All Sunday SP card (ミス・オールサンデー), One Piece | ¥39,000 | ¥27,150 (22 sales) | −30.4% |
CardMochi data: Yahoo! Auctions medians to 12 Oct 2026. Lillie's Clefairy ex (−27.8%), the OP-16 Zehahahahaha! parallel (−31.0%) and the OP-13 Shanks SP card (−26.8%) fell about as far. The Start Deck 100 Pikachu ex and the Portgas.D.Ace SP card from last week's edition still sell 35% and 44% below their 90-day medians.
The Mega Rayquaza, an example in our sold-vs-ask study, matters most here: 102 sales in a month is a real market, not a handful of bids. The few rises were older Pokémon cards with thin trading, most of them new to our sales data this week, led by the Dragonite ex (カイリューex) from Rulers of the Heavens, up 69% to ¥17,725 on eight sales. In One Piece, no card in this group rose more than 1%.
The newest sets
30th CELEBRATION is a month old, and its cards have lost more than its box. Our 30th CELEBRATION post, updated today, prices an average box's contents at about ¥22,900 at shop asks, down from ¥25,900 on 2 Oct, while a sealed box still sells for about ¥24,600. The Card Set's first night on Yahoo! Auctions put a complete set at 1.6 to 1.9 times its combined MSRP (the official retail price, 希望小売価格).
In The World’s Strongest Warriors (世界最強の戦士), the Shanks SR parallel slipped from ¥158,000 on 4 Oct to ¥138,000 on 12 Oct, while the Luffy leader parallel rose from ¥118,000 to ¥138,000. We still can't say what they sell for: neither has enough trusted sales.
Do expensive cards fall faster?
In Pokémon, yes, step by step. We split this week's cards by their 90-day median sale price:
| 90-day median | Pokémon | One Piece |
|---|---|---|
| ¥10,000 or more | −7.1% (152 cards) | −10.8% (42 cards) |
| ¥3,000 to ¥9,999 | −4.9% (241 cards) | −13.0% (68 cards) |
| Under ¥3,000 | −3.6% (109 cards) | −9.8% (24 cards) |
CardMochi data: median change from the 90-day to the 30-day median, sales to 12 Oct 2026. The under-¥3,000 row is skewed: our sales data only covers cards that ask ¥3,000 or more, so these are cards that sell below their ask.
Pokémon's falls grow with price, from 3.6% to 4.9% to 7.1%, and 89 of the 152 dearest cards fell more than 5%. One Piece shows no such pattern: held to the same cards as last week, it fell about as hard at every price, and only 3 of its 110 cards over ¥3,000 rose more than 5%. Our data shows where the falls are, not why.
What this means for you
Pricing a Pokémon chase card to sell: the typical card over ¥10,000 now sells about 7% below its 90-day median, so ¥100,000 points to about ¥93,000. The three Pokémon cards in the table are down 26% to 34%.
Watching a One Piece SP card: four of the five biggest One Piece falls this week are SP cards. Waiting has paid for a month; the next few weeks' sales will show whether it still does.
Holding a 30th CELEBRATION Card Set: one night of sales is a small sample, so give it a week before you price yours.
Entering a One Piece lottery: six close by 20 Oct, and four of them are confirmed only by aggregators.
Method and limits
- Sales: Yahoo! Auctions ended listings for the same version, medians over 30 and 90 days, read to 12 Oct 2026 (last week's: to 5 Oct), for cards with at least 3 sales in 30 days and 6 in 90; up to 400 ended auctions per card. "Same cards" compares cards that passed that filter in both weeks.
- Shop asks: the lowest in-stock Japanese ask per exact version, asks of ¥1,000 or more on either day, from the shops' readings of 3 and 12 Oct (Pokémon) and 4 and 12 Oct (One Piece). Cards we didn't re-read are left out, and so are six One Piece moves larger than threefold, as likely listing mix-ups. An ask moves when a shop sells out or restocks, not only when the market does.
- Lotteries and releases come from our calendar, which links each shop's page.
- Card Set resale: Yahoo! Auctions ended listings, read 17 Oct 2026; one night of sales.
Sources
- CardMochi data file market-week-2026-10-16: Yahoo! Auctions 30- and 90-day sold medians (this week, and the same cards last week), shop-ask changes, newest-set asks, the price-band split and calendar entries.
- Yahoo! Auctions ended listings (落札相場): auctions.yahoo.co.jp/closedsearch; for the Card Set, read 17 Oct 2026: auctions.yahoo.co.jp
- 30th CELEBRATION Card Set, The Pokémon Company: 30th.pokemon-card.com/product/cardset
- EB-05, Bandai: onepiece-cardgame.com/products/eb05; HEROINES PRECIOUS BOX: onepiece-cardgame.com
- JUMP SHOP entry lottery (LivePocket): livepocket.jp; Rakuten Books lottery: books.rakuten.co.jp; lottery aggregator for the ⚠️ rows: cardchusen.com
Researched with AI tools, checked and edited by the CardMochi team. Prices are Yahoo! Auctions sold medians and Japanese shop asking prices on the dates shown. About CardMochi · How we price